Oil Speculation
Last week, President Obama attempted to do something about high gas prices by cracking down on oil speculators who might be profiting from recent market volatility. His proposal includes increased monitoring of oil markets, harsher fines for firms that manipulate the market, and better market surveillance technology. But is speculation really driving high prices? RFF Gilbert White Fellow James L. Smith will examine that question at RFF’s First Wednesday Seminar on May 2. He and a panel of experts will discuss whether price manipulation in oil markets is a real and important problem. RSVP to attend in person or watch live via webcast and tweet your questions using the hashtag #AskRFF.
Learning from the Gulf Oil Spill
Two years after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, we are still learning about how it happened and what lasting impact it will have. Experts at RFF have generated significant research on how such a disaster could have occurred and how to reduce the chances of something similar occurring in the future.
One idea that is gaining traction is called Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) analysis, which is already employed in the nuclear industry. Low probability, high impact events like the Deepwater Horizon spill occur when a sequence of small and seemingly unrelated failures occur in the system. ASP tracks these events and can deliver a more realistic picture of the potential for catastrophic failure, but it requires tracking accidents in a manner that the oil and gas industry has not yet adopted. RFF’s Roger Cooke, Heather Ross, and Adam Stern have recommended a clear structure for incorporating ASP into deepwater drilling practices.
Unnatural Disasters
According to a new poll, a majority of Americans believe that the extreme weather events of this past year were a result of climate change. In the latest issue of Resources, RFF Fellows Sheila Olmstead and Carolyn Kousky write that much of the damage from extreme events comes from the presence of people and property in risky areas. As the nation enters a new era of major economic losses from extreme events like floods and wildfires, the federal government needs to adapt its policies accordingly. Moreover, Olmstead and Kousky maintain that public policies such as wildfire suppression and federal flood insurance can drive development in areas with a higher chance of loss from disaster.
