Managing Coastal Flooding Risks
Alabama port cities, such as Mobile, have the potential to be devastated by “as much as 25 feet of water” from rising seas, according to federal studies. However, local governments can “adopt land use strategies that manage risks effectively,” writes RFF’s Carolyn Kousky. For example: “More flexible property rights, such as rolling easements, have been suggested to allow for private use of the shore until inundation occurs.” RFF’s Margaret Walls suggests that communities might want to consider transfer of development rights to bring about such land use change. She notes: “Importantly, there is no direct cost to the government except the administrative costs of running the program.”
Ice Sheet Collapse
In two recent studies, scientists have reported that the West Antarctic ice sheet has entered an unstoppable “chain reaction” melting phase. One of the study’s authors notes that the “thinning of the ice in recent decades is most likely related to climate change” but that it is difficult to predict how efforts to stop global warming would affect the melt.
At a recent RFF seminar, panelists discussed the challenges of predicting the effects of climate change on ice sheets (video available)—including issues with quantifying the uncertainty associated with the melt. In new research, RFF Chauncey Starr Chair in Risk Analysis Roger Cooke writes that communication about uncertainty must also be improved: “We are now facing decisions that could eventually impact the habitability of the planet as we know it, and we will make those decisions without knowing exactly how current actions affect the future climate . . . . The way forward starts with getting the uncertainty narrative right."
