On the Issues: Los Angeles Wildfires Aftermath, Artificial Intelligence Emissions, and More

Matt Fleck, Maya Krainc, and Elizabeth Wason

Twice a month, we’re compiling the most relevant news stories from diverse sources online, connecting the latest environmental and energy economics research to global current events, real-time public discourse, and policy decisions. Keep reading, and feel free to send us your feedback.

Here are some questions we’re asking and addressing with our research chops this week:

What are the causes, costs, and consequences of the recent catastrophic wildfires in Los Angeles?

Firefighters in Los Angeles, California, have achieved control over the perimeter of the Eaton and Palisades Fires, more than three weeks since the fires began. The fires are estimated to be one of the most expensive extreme weather events in US history; the largest private provider of home insurance in California already has paid out over $1 billion in claims. The affordability and availability of home insurance that covers wildfire damage will only become a bigger problem in California, says Resources for the Future (RFF) Fellow Yanjun (Penny) Liao. Liao joined David Wear and Matthew Wibbenmeyer on an episode of the Resources Radio podcast last week to discuss the causes and consequences of the wildfires, along with preventive measures that can help mitigate wildfire risk and damage. “Even when they’re not dropped by their insurers, a lot of homeowners start to see a rapid increase in their premiums,” says Liao.

How may the development and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies intersect with efforts to mitigate climate change?

DeepSeek, an AI company based in China, has claimed it needs 10–40 times less energy to operate than comparable AI technology developed in the United States, though current evidence varies in supporting this claim. Projections of US electricity demand have predicted increases, partially because of the proliferation of data centers that power AI. But the outlook for this change in demand seems less certain now that evidence exists for more efficient AI. The interplay between AI and emissions is a big story, says RFF Senior Director for Research and Policy Engagement Kristin Hayes. Hayes and RFF scholars Jenya Kahn-Lang and Nicholas Roy discuss AI and other climate stories to watch in 2025 in a recent In Focus video. “We don’t know … whether AI will ultimately decrease emissions in terms of the opportunities it provides to better regulate energy efficiency and the electric power grid, or whether … electricity-consumption needs will actually offset any gains that might be realized from the use of AI,” says Hayes.

How is the purpose of negotiations at the world’s annual climate conference evolving?

Diplomat André Aranha Corrêa do Lago has been appointed the president of the next Conference of the Parties (COP), the global climate conference convened annually by the United Nations. Corrêa do Lago is expected to try to build on an agreement, struck at COP29, that provides financing for climate mitigation and adaptation in developing nations. The pronounced difficulty of securing this agreement, along with the unusual absence of a broader agreement on key climate issues, drew critique about the rules and purpose of the COP. But “the lack of momentous new global agreements at annual COPs should not be understood as the failure of a process that is designed to ratchet up the ambition of national climate policies and structure global cooperation over decades,” say RFF scholars Milan Elkerbout and Katarina Nehrkorn. Elkerbout and Nehrkorn discuss this evolution of negotiations at the COP and key outcomes from COP29 in a recent blog post.

Expert Perspectives

Executive Order Aims to Increase US Production of Oil and Gas

On his first day in office, President Donald Trump declared an energy emergency, which directs federal agencies to facilitate an increase in the production of energy and critical minerals on US lands with emergency powers that may override other considerations, including environmental damages. The order prioritizes the production of oil and gas, although the United States has been producing record-high levels of crude oil.

“These federal efforts likely will have little effect on US oil and gas production,” says Brian C. Prest, a fellow at RFF. “In contrast to other countries where oil companies often are run by the government, oil and gas production in the United States largely is driven by the decisions of private companies, which decide whether to drill based on the price of oil and the cost of drilling. Production will increase if the oil prices increase. If the financial markets truly anticipated a surge of new production from these policy changes, we should have seen downward pressure on crude oil prices. Yet, crude oil prices remain effectively unchanged since the election results became known—$71 per barrel of oil on February 6 compared to $72 on election day.”

Resources Roundup

Big Policy Decisions On Tap in 2025

The Trump administration is pursuing new priorities for environmental and energy policy. On January 29, RFF hosted a panel of leaders in industry, government, media, and research, who weighed in on the implications of these new priorities in 2025 and beyond. Moderated by RFF Fellow and Federal Climate Policy Initiative Director Kevin Rennert, the panel discussed the president’s recent executive orders on energy and climate policy, the future of the clean energy transition, the impact of extreme weather events on government budgets, the potential effects of the administration’s tariffs and trade policy on global energy markets, and more. Catch up on the recording of the full event on the RFF website.

Examining the Impacts and Effects of Federal Environmental Regulations

Credible analysis of federal environmental regulations can help determine the efficacy of these regulations, along with costs and unintended or adverse outcomes. On February 13, RFF will host a webinar featuring retrospective analysis of federal regulations that affect the industrial sector, discussion of procedures that could more consistently embed retrospective analysis within the standard practice of federal agencies, and more. RSVP for the webinar.

Welcoming Carlos Martín to Resources for the Future

Last week, Carlos Martín joined RFF as the organization’s new vice president for research and policy engagement. Martín comes to RFF from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. His research has focused on housing issues that intersect with environmental justice, decarbonization, disaster mitigation, adaptation to climate change, and racial equity. Martín spoke with Resources magazine about the origins of his interest in this work, what motivated him to join RFF, and his thoughts about the future of research and policy engagement at the organization. “RFF is the right institution for this moment. I’m grateful and humbled to be part of it,” Martín says.

Comparing Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions

As a greenhouse gas, methane traps significantly more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, but methane also takes less time than carbon dioxide to break down. For an article in the latest issue of Resources magazine, RFF University Fellow Thomas Sterner and coauthors consider the trade-offs between directing policy efforts toward reducing methane emissions versus carbon dioxide emissions. The authors compare the chemical properties of methane and carbon dioxide, differences in the effect of their emissions on global temperatures, and the impacts of each greenhouse gas on society. “For climate policy to be efficient, the warming effects of carbon dioxide and methane have to be compared—or, more specifically, made comparable—on a common scale,” say the authors.

Objects Are Rapidly Accumulating in Earth’s Orbit

Earth’s orbit increasingly is filled with debris and satellites. This accumulation likely will continue building in the coming decades as more networks of satellites are developed and launched. Akhil Rao, an assistant professor of economics at Middlebury College, joined Resources Radio this week to discuss the management and use of Earth’s orbit. He breaks down the differences among the layers of Earth’s orbit, the rapid increase in the number of objects circling the planet, and governance of the various layers of Earth’s orbit by countries and international organizations. “In the more ‘crowded’ orbits, it is less that you can’t fit more stuff in there and more that … the probability that you’re going to run into something … is rapidly rising,” says Rao.

#ChartOfTheWeek

Scientists generally break down Earth’s orbit into four layers. Most satellites, rocket bodies, and debris are in low Earth orbit, the layer closest to Earth’s surface and which extends up to 2,000 kilometers into the atmosphere. This Chart of the Week shows how many payloads (i.e., instruments carried by spacecrafts) and rocket bodies are in each layer of orbit and how much those numbers have increased since 1958.

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