The year 1975 is the terminal date on many economic forecasts prepared in the early postwar era, including the so-called Paley report (report of the President's Materials Policy Commission). In a retrospective comment on these forecasts, Hans Landsberg of Resources for the Future, listed these obstacles to the preparation of useful projections:
- The difficulty in foreseeing the direction and speed of technological change.
- Divining changes in public policy, both at home and abroad.
- The emergence of new societal perceptions and goals, such as environmental considerations.
- Changes in major parameters, such as the rate of population growth.
- Facile reliance on past relationships between sets of time series that have exhibited sturdy constancy in the past but may hide internal divergences liable to break loose during the projection period. More generally formulated, this can be stated as the reliance on relationships of which the inherent logic is not understood but which seem to offer convenient calculating opportunities.
- And, finally, failure to tell the consumer in unmistakable terms the purpose of the projection so that he will not misuse it. He may, anyway, but at least the authors will have a cleaner conscience.
A version of this article appeared in print in the June 1975 issue of Resources magazine.
