Let us look 1,000 years into the future, rather than just 100 years. At that date no one would say that we can depend heavily upon coal and petroleum for the energy base of our world economy. Unless "breeding" of nuclear materials becomes economic, we would also probably be running out of economic ores of uranium and thorium, regardless of any practical exploration efforts. This is the future period for which concern with running out of minerals becomes very serious.
This is the "conservation nightmare"—that our civilization would follow that of the Mayas into oblivion, having depleted its basic natural resources that are within the scope of its technical knowledge. There is, however, one very important alternative: an ecological balance. This is a practical solution, not just an act of faith.
The ecological balance means that solar energy capture could be made adequate for a permanent supply of energy of a world population several times the present at a per capita income level several times that of the United States today. Based upon present basic technology and very heavy investment, most agricultural land would be devoted to fuel plant production and much additional non-agricultural space to solar cells of various sorts.
—Paul W. McGann
This is the outlook for recreational land use by the year 2000 compared with that of 1950, according to an analysis made by Marion Clawson in a study of land use to be published later this year for RFF by the Johns Hopkins Press.
Four interrelated factors contribute to this possibility: a roughly doubled population; doubled average income after taxes; greater leisure derived from a shorter work week and longer vacations; and greater mobility amounting to nearly twice the 5,000 miles a year the average American travels today. If these four factors are multiplicative, and if prospects for the future bear any resemblance to past trends, the effect would be about a tenfold increase by 2000.
These are the dimensions of the "crisis in recreation"—some of the reasons why the Congress in 1958 set up the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission to take a long look at the resources we shall need to supply our snowballing demands.
Why They Behave Like Foresters
The realization that successful organizations manipulate the intellects and wills of their members, as Forest Service experience illustrates, has recently produced a flurry of alarm ... To some observers, this seems to be a threat to the freedom and dignity of man.
These fears are not entirely without foundation, but they are based on a partial view of reality ... That which is called control of the mind is, when viewed from another standpoint, also termed morality. Conscience, principles, patriotism, honor, devotion to duty and to one's comrades, unswerving justice, compassion, resistance to temptation, refusal to submit to attempted intimidation, self-control, and many other much-admired qualities, are evidences of values, attitudes, and beliefs so deeply ingrained that self-interest, personal desires ... are rendered nugatory as influences on behavior.
The same applies to the zeal, conscientiousness, and integrity of the men in the Forest Service; these traits are so thoroughly infused into them that the Service has never been touched by so much as a breath of scandal, although it is the custodian of properties worth hundreds of millions of dollars, has handled many hundreds of millions in receipts and expenditures, and is responsible for a program that was beset by fraud and dishonesty for much of the last third of the nineteenth century.
—Herbert Kaufman
The first passage is excerpted from Science and Resources, essays deriving from RFF's 1959 Forum. The second is from The Forest Ranger: A Study in Administrative Behavior. Both books were published for RFF by the Johns Hopkins Press.