Motor Vehicles and Pollution in Central and Eastern Europe

Air pollution problems in Central and Eastern Europe are well-documented. The problems receiving the most attention are those associated with the use of coal in power plants and heavy industry. Less understood are the air pollution problems that arise from the use of motor vehicles.

The primary pollutants emitted by motor vehicles that run on gasoline are carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides combine in the atmosphere to form ground-level ozone, the principal ingredient in urban smog. Motor vehicles that run on gasoline containing lead also emit lead into the atmosphere. Those that run on diesel fuel emit particulates and sulfur dioxide (SO2).

The only accurate way to assess the extent of the pollution problems caused by the use of motor vehicles is to monitor ambient air quality. In the case of problems resulting from the use of leaded gasoline, it is also necessary to analyze the level of lead in the bloodstreams of individuals who are exposed to lead emissions. Unfortunately, in most Central and Eastern European countries there is no extensive testing of individuals' blood-lead levels, and there are few facilities that monitor ambient CO and ozone concentrations.

Given the lack of data on ambient air quality, an alternative way of assessing the extent of air pollution problems associated with motor vehicles in Central and Eastern Europe is to examine patterns of vehicle ownership, use, and emissions in the region. With Michael P. Walsh, an independent environmental consultant, I analyzed such patterns in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland in order to forecast future levels of emissions from motor vehicles in these countries. (At the time of the analysis, the Czech Republic and Slovakia were one country and therefore are referred to as one country throughout the findings reported below.) Our analysis focused on emissions of CO, HCs, NOx, and lead rather than on particulates and SO2, as motor vehicles account for less than 5 percent of total emissions of these two pollutants in most Central and Eastern European countries.

Patterns of vehicle ownership and use

Several statistics concerning car ownership and use seem to suggest that pollution problems stemming from motor vehicle use are less severe in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland than in the countries of the West. First, in these four countries the average number of cars per 1,000 people is 142—about 40 percent of the average ratio of cars to people in the western region of Europe and 25 percent of that in the United States. Second, cars in the four Central and Eastern European countries are driven less than cars in the West. On average, a car in one of these four countries is driven only half as many miles per year as a car in the United States.

Despite the fact that they are fewer in number and are driven fewer miles, cars in Central and Eastern Europe tend to be more polluting than cars in the West. This tendency is connected in part with the fact that cars in Central and Eastern Europe are much older than cars in the West. The average age of cars is 15 years in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland, but only 7.6 years in the United States. In addition, the percentage of very old cars being driven in these four countries is higher than that in the United States. In the Czech Republic and Slovakia, for example, 48 percent of the cars on the road are more than 10 years old, and in Hungary 42 percent are more than 10 years old. In the United States, however, only 30 percent are this old. Age can be an important factor in how much cars pollute because older cars generally lack the modern pollution control equipment, such as catalytic converters and electronic fuel injection, that newer cars have. In Central and Eastern Europe this problem is compounded by the fact that the region's technology for producing vehicles with such equipment lags behind that of the West.

In addition to their comparatively old age, there are other reasons why cars in Central and Eastern Europe are some of the most polluting vehicles in the world. One is that they are poorly maintained. Another is that they are often defective when they come off the assembly line. Yet another is that they run on highly polluting fuels. The sulfur content of diesel fuel sold in Central and Eastern Europe is high, leading to high levels of particulate emissions. Perhaps more important, nearly all the gasoline sold in the region is leaded gasoline. Moreover, the lead content of that gasoline is typically higher than that of leaded gasoline in Western Europe. While the gasoline in most Western European countries contains 0.15 grams per liter (g/l) of lead, the lead content of gasoline averages between 0.3 g/I and 0.6 g/l in Poland, 0.3 g/l in Hungary, and 0.2 g/l in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

One way to gauge the severity of air pollution problems caused by motor vehicles in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland is to compare motor vehicle emissions in these countries with those in the United States. To do this, we estimated total annual emissions of CO, HCs, NOx, and lead from motor vehicles in each of the four Central and Eastern European countries in 1990 and in the United States in 1989 and in 1970, when motor vehicle emissions in that country were substantially uncontrolled. In order to account for the differences in the size of each of these countries, we made comparisons of the emissions on the basis of each country's total population.

It is widely held that the United States had unacceptably high ambient CO concentrations in 1970. Until approximately 1980, the national ambient CO standard of 9 parts per million was exceeded in many locations. Although ambient CO concentrations remain unacceptably high during the winter months in some high-altitude cities, the national average CO concentration today is well below the standard. A comparison of per capita CO emissions from motor vehicles in the United States in 1989—132 metric tons per 1,000 people—with those in the four Central and Eastern European countries in 1990—62 metric tons per 1,000 people—suggests that the latter countries have a less severe CO emissions problem than the United States has even today. Since CO emissions from motor vehicles do not pose much of a problem in the United States, it is possible that they do not pose much of a problem in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland.

Like CO emissions, lead emissions from motor vehicles were a serious problem in the United States in 1970. Since the country's phaseout of leaded gasoline, such emissions have become virtually a concern of the past. A comparison of per capita lead emissions from motor vehicles in the United States and in the four Central and Eastern European countries suggests that the latter countries have a less severe lead emissions problem than the United States did in 1970, but a more severe problem than the United States did in 1989. In the United States, emissions of lead per 1,000 people dropped from .761 metric tons in 1970 to .008 metric tons in 1989. In the four Central and Eastern European countries, emissions of lead per 1,000 people totaled .045 metric tons. Given their use of leaded gasoline, these countries may have a significant lead problem; however, it is difficult to determine how severe the problem is because data on the blood-lead levels of their city-dwelling citizens are limited.

Compared with CO and lead, ozone has posed a more difficult problem for the United States. Many urban areas continue to violate the U.S. ozone standard. Average ambient ozone concentrations have declined since the early 1970s, but not nearly as much as average ambient CO concentrations have. Emissions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, the two precursors of ozone, dropped from 46 metric tons and 31 metric tons per 1,000 people in 1970 to 44 metric tons and 24 metric tons per 1,000 people, respectively. While per capita HC and NOx emissions from motor vehicles in the four Central and Eastern European countries—10 metric tons and 6.5 metric tons per 1,000 people, respectively—are less than those in the United States, it is impossible to conclude from this fact that the former countries do not have an ozone problem.

Comparison of car emissions in cities

One major drawback to the above comparisons of per capita motor vehicle emissions is that, because they are made on a nationwide basis, they do not reflect the fact that air quality problems—particularly those associated with motor vehicles—are inherently problems of urban areas. Therefore we estimated emissions on a city-by-city basis. In doing so, we compared total amounts of HC and CO emissions from cars (rather than emissions from all motor vehicles, as in the above comparisons) in three Central and Eastern European cities—Prague, Sofia, and Budapest—with those in one U.S. city—Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Because car emissions figures for Central and Eastern European cities are not available, we had to estimate them for Prague, Sofia, and Budapest. We did so on the basis of a calculation involving the number of cars in each of the cities, the number of miles traveled annually per car in each of the countries of which the cities are capitals, and an estimate of the grams-per-mile emissions of U.S. cars prior to 1970. We performed the same calculation to estimate car emissions in Milwaukee, but in place of the estimate of the grams-per-mile emissions of U.S. cars prior to 1970 we used an estimate of the average grams-per-mile emissions of the U.S. car fleet in 1990. We obtained the latter estimate by running the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's MOBILE 5.0 emissions model.

We chose to compare the car emissions in Milwaukee with those in the three Central and Eastern European cities for several reasons. First, the population of Milwaukee is almost the same as that of Prague and Sofia. Second, the summer temperatures in Milwaukee are very similar to those in Sofia and Budapest. This similarity is important because temperature is a strong predictor of evaporative HC emissions and ambient ozone concentrations. Third, Milwaukee has violated the U.S. ozone standard in recent years. Thus if our HC emissions estimates for Sofia, Prague, and Budapest are equal to or greater than those of Milwaukee, we venture that the former cities might have ozone problems.

One of the most important questions for policymakers in Central and Eastern European countries is whether they will have a motor vehicle pollution problem to deal with in the future. Will ownership and use of motor vehicles increase, and, if so, by how much? How will such an increase affect total emissions of HC, CO, NOx, and lead? Should controls on motor vehicle emissions be required, and, if so, how stringent should they be?

As a starting point in our attempt to answer these questions, we forecasted increases in the number of cars on the road and the number of miles traveled annually per car in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland through the year 2010. Using data from developed western countries, we established relationships among gasoline prices, gross national product (GNP), and car ownership and use. In doing so, we implicitly assumed that these relationships will hold in the future for Central and Eastern European countries. We then used World Bank GNP forecasts for the four Central and Eastern European countries in question and our best estimates of future gasoline prices to forecast the number of cars on the road and the number of miles traveled annually per car through the year 2010. We then assumed that percentage increases in the number of trucks and motorcycles on the road and percentage increases in the number of miles traveled annually per truck and per motorcycle were the same as those for cars.

With respect to GNP, the World Bank predicts that it will drop or remain constant in the four countries during the early part of the forecast period (when the countries are continuing to undergo economic reconstruction), but that it will eventually rise by between 5 percent and 6 percent per year in each of the countries. With respect to retail gasoline prices, we expect that they will reflect world market oil prices, which we assume will gradually rise to $30 per barrel by the year 2010. By 1995, we expect that gasoline prices in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland will also reflect tax rates similar to those in Western Europe. We anticipate that retail gasoline prices in Bulgaria will be somewhat lower than in the other three countries.

According to our forecasts of car ownership and car use, both the number of cars and the average annual number of miles traveled per car will increase over the forecast period (see figure, p. 5), but not by a large amount. By the year 2010, there will be more than 13 million cars in the four Central and Eastern European countries—an average of 167 cars per 1,000 people—and each car will be driven an average of slightly more than 5,000 miles per year. The number of cars and the number of miles driven will both be far lower in these countries than they were in the United States and Western European countries in the late 1980s. In fact, because of the decrease in GNP and the increase in gasoline prices in the early part of the forecast period, these numbers will actually fall initially.

To determine how increases in motor vehicle ownership and use will affect levels of motor vehicle emissions of CO, HCs, NOx, and lead in the four Central and Eastern European countries through 2010, we combined our forecasts of these increases with emissions-per-mile estimates obtained by running the MOBILE 5.0 emissions model under two scenarios. In our so-called high emissions scenario, we assumed that the types of vehicles and fuel used throughout the forecast period are similar to those used in 1993. In particular, we assumed that there are some minor controls for HC, CO, and NOx emissions and that no new vehicles with 2-stroke engines are sold, but that no emissions standards are enforced. We also assumed that no effective vehicle inspection and maintenance programs are in place; that all gasoline is leaded; and that vehicles in the four Central and Eastern European countries are older, on average, than vehicles in the West.

In our so-called low emissions scenario, we assumed that new vehicles sold in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland meet European Community (EC) emissions standards by 1995 and that new vehicles sold in Bulgaria meet these standards by the year 2000. For light-duty vehicles, the EC carbon monoxide emission standard is 4.35 g/mi; the combined hydrocarbon and nitrogen oxide emission standard is 1.55 g/mi. These standards are not as strict as current U.S. standards for vehicle emissions; however, most analysts agree that, in order to meet the EC standards, cars will have to be equipped with catalytic converters. Additional assumptions in the low emissions scenario are that effective vehicle inspection and maintenance programs are put in place; that unleaded gasoline's share of the total gasoline market gradually rises to 80 percent in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland, and to 50 percent in Bulgaria by 2010; that all remaining leaded gasoline has a lead content of 0.15 g/l by the year 2000; and that percentages of younger and older cars in all four countries are similar to those in the United States.

We should note that the most likely emissions scenario might well be one that is intermediate between our high emissions scenario and our low emissions scenario. The high emissions scenario may be pessimistic in that some of the countries in question are already tightening vehicle emissions regulations. For example, all new cars sold in the Czech Republic and Slovakia after October 31, 1993 must be equipped with catalytic converters. Beginning in 1994, all new cars sold in Hungary must meet EC emissions standards. In recent years, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland have all established import policies that favor the importation, of new model vehicles and vehicles equipped with catalytic converters. Each of these countries has also set up vehicle inspection and maintenance programs. On the other hand, given the costs entailed by some of the new vehicle emissions control requirements and the poor economic conditions in these countries, enforcement of the requirements might be somewhat lax. For this reason, our low emissions scenario might be overly optimistic. However, both our scenarios should reasonably bound the true level of future emissions, given our forecasts of vehicle miles traveled.

In our forecasts of motor vehicle emissions levels through the year 2010 in each of the four Central and Eastern European countries, emissions are indexed with 1990 (the base year), and emissions in that year are set equal to one. In the high emissions scenario, emissions of each pollutant fall or remain constant until 1995, then gradually rise throughout the remainder of the forecast period (see figure, top p. 6) as the annual number of vehicle miles traveled rises. By 2010, total emissions of CO, HC, and NOx have risen in all four countries. Emissions of CO reach 5,182,000 metric tons, an increase from the base year of 22 percent; emissions of HCs reach 930,000 metric tons, an increase of 25 percent; and emissions of NOx reach 616,000 metric tons, an increase of 5 percent. Lead emissions rise from 2,650 metric tons to 3,040 metric tons, an increase of 15 percent.

The above-noted findings suggest that gradually eliminating leaded gasoline and adopting some other policies to control motor vehicle emissions may be prudent. However, they also suggest that requiring vehicles to be equipped with catalytic converters and setting up vehicle inspection and maintenance programs in order to meet EC standards for emissions of CO, HC, and NOx may be unwise in the short run. These costly measures may not be needed before 2010 if energy prices are allowed to rise to world market levels and the motor vehicle market is opened up so that relatively new and clean-running vehicles can be purchased in Central and Eastern Europe.

Given that they are severely limited in Central and Eastern European countries, resources might best be devoted to monitoring of ambient air quality and to the identification of cost-effective policies for reducing motor vehicle emissions in cities, where some significant air pollution problems might exist. Such policies could focus on the use of economic instruments that will reduce driving and improve traffic flows, and they could obviate the need to promulgate costly national regulation of motor vehicle emissions.