Many scientists believe that unabated growth of greenhouse gas emissions might increase global mean temperature, raise sea levels, and significantly alter weather patterns over the next century. While the effects of this growth are highly uncertain, changes in temperature, sea levels, and weather patterns might have large and irreversible consequences for natural systems—consequences that could threaten economic and social well-being. These could include reduced agricultural productivity, coastal flooding and storm surges, and destruction of unique ecological environments. Consequently, many believe there is a need to mitigate the atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gases.
An international convention on climate change that, in broad terms, focuses on such mitigation may be signed at UNCED. The convention would be chiefly concerned with limiting emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) that result from human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Some of the political and economic issues that emerge in reducing these emissions were discussed in the Spring 1991 issue of Resources and are highlighted below.
Individual countries have taken various positions on an international agreement to control CO2 emissions. These positions are inextricably linked to concerns about economic growth and technological capability and run the gamut from commitment to stabilizing or reducing CO2 emissions to unwillingness to act. For the most part, member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have expressed the view that stabilization of and even some reduction in CO2 emissions will not entail intolerable economic costs compared with the benefits of reducing the likelihood of climate change. However, many of these countries have yet to codify their CO2 mitigation goals. The United States stands alone among the OECD countries in taking a more cautious position on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. It does not currently support specific CO2 stabilization or reduction targets, although it does support establishment of an international convention to devise a framework for dealing with global warming. The former Soviet Union and the countries of eastern Europe have shown less enthusiasm for CO2 emissions reductions than the OECD countries. They are preoccupied with reforming their political and economic systems and addressing pressing local environmental problems. However, these countries have professed serious concern about global warming. Developing countries are perhaps the least eager to support an international agreement to curb CO2 emissions because they fear it will have a negative impact on their economic development efforts. They have neither the capacity nor the flexibility to significantly mitigate these emissions. In any case, the developing countries believe that their contribution to global warming is being overstated and that the developed countries created the problem and should assume responsibility for mitigating it.
A version of this article appeared in print in the January 1992 issue of Resources magazine.
A version of this article appeared in print in the January 1992 issue of Resources magazine.
