The drought which has plagued the Northwest for five consecutive years appears to have been broken in the past water year (October through September). As of September 1967 the groundwater level equalled or exceeded the long-term average level in nearly all locations. Groundwater not only provides a direct source of water through pumping but also a large part of streamflows during dry seasons—as much as 75 percent during the growing season. Since groundwater aquifers represent storage many times the volume of all man-built surface reservoirs, the level of water in these aquifers is indicative of a region's basic water inventory and of a longer-term balance or imbalance between precipitation and water outflow.
Looking at the September situation area by area, one notes that Maine was experiencing excessive to normal streamflow and that groundwater levels were above average. In central New England streamflow was below normal, but the contents of major reservoirs ranged from 94 to 115 percent of average and groundwater levels were above average in most observation wells. Some wells in Southeast Massachusetts and in Rhode Island exhibited the highest September levels since records began. Connecticut experienced normal to near deficient streamflows, but with a few exceptions groundwater levels were above average or near it. Streamflow in New York was generally normal and the New York City reservoir system, the focus of so much concern a year and a half ago, was above average at 87 percent of capacity. The major exception was Long Island, where streamflow remained far below average and groundwater levels also were below it. In the rest of the state, groundwater levels ranged from average to considerably above average.
In New Jersey, the Delaware River flow was 112 percent of normal, and water quality conditions—of so much concern during the drought—were generally improved. Groundwater levels rose excpt in the heavy pumping area around Atlantic City. Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Delaware experienced average to excessive streamflow, and groundwater levels remained above or near average.
The cause of the five year drought is still not clear, and climatologists are far from unanimous about the explanation. It is not yet possible to determine whether the event was an unlikely aberration in a basically unchanged climatic regime or whether a permanent change in the weather characteristics of the region occurred. Neither is it possible to assess the precise impact of the drought on society. Robert Kates has defined drought as "a shortage of water harmful to man, always a joint product of climatic variation and the degree of human adjustment to that variation, its severity measurable by the burden it places on society." Thus, from a social point of view, hydrologic deficiencies are significant only if social adjustment to them involves a significant cost. Unfortunately, few studies of the drought's socioeconomic effects have been undertaken. A major exception is a nearly completed study of the drought's impact on urban communities in Massachusetts, undertaken by a group of scholars at Clark and Harvard universities. The outstanding research opportunity to study the impact on New York City has probably been lost.
What then is the legacy of the northeastern drought? The interest of the general public has clearly flagged, but several steps have been taken at least partly as a result of the drought.
First, a North Atlantic Region Framework Study has been given priority by the Water Resources Council to study alternative schemes for "firming-up" regional water suppLies against a possible recurrence of drought. This study will produce information on costs of alternative incremental supplies and will study the benefits forthcoming from regional coordination in the provision of municipal and industrial water supplies.
Second, a New England River Basins Commission was established in September under Title II of the Water Resources Planning Act. This commission will be charged with the integrated planning of water resource developments in New England. The wider scope of planning ought to result in more effective use of both existing and new supplies.
Third, Congress has charged the Corps of Engineers to undertake a study of water supplies for the Northeast. This is being carried out by the Corps in consultation with other agencies.
Fourth, there are good prospects that the Congress will establish a National Water Commission to make a five-year study of the nation's acute water problems and to make recommendations for solutions to Congress. Proposals to establish such a commission stem from western water problems, but eastern support has been triggered by the drought. Study of the Northeast water supply-demand situation would clearly fall within the commission's purview.
A version of this article appeared in print in the January 1968 issue of Resources magazine.
