Two conflicting perceptions of the future role of energy are presented in the following excerpt from a widely discussed new RFF book, ENERGY IN AMERICA'S FUTURE: THE CHOICES BEFORE US. Written by Sam H. Schurr, project leader, Joel Darmstadter, Harry Perry, William Ramsay, and Milton Russell, the book provides a comprehensive treatment of technical, economic, institutional, environmental, and health and safety aspects of alternative energy futures. This excerpt, written by Dr. Russell, is chapter 15 of the book.
Views on the future of energy are strongly affected by more general attitudes about the conditions which the world will face and the direction human society should take. In simplified terms, two diametrically opposed world views have tended to influence broad energy policy choices. The inability of the adherents of these views to agree has stymied progress toward solving energy-related problems, and the conflicts that have occurred have nearly poisoned the prospects for compromise in the future. For the sake of comparison and contrast, we might list some of their respective tenets:
"Expansionist" view
- The expanded production of goods and services and the increases in per capita consumption that have characterized western economies since the industrial revolution are good, and they have yet to run their course.
- The benefits of economic growth have yet to be spread as widely as they might be.
- While some redirection of effort may be necessary to accommodate such growing problems as environmental degradation and population expansion, no fundamental change is required now.
"Limited" view
- Expansion has already overshot the ability of the earth to sustain it, and its benefits have been overestimated.
- Redirection of output, restructuring of production, and redistribution of wealth are urgently required if disaster of various types is to be avoided.
- Changes in value systems and lifestyles are required and can be achieved; these changes demand that new institutions gain ascendance.
There are other ways of characterizing these extreme views. Moreover, many persons might find that their own positions contain some of the elements ascribed here to the two sharply opposing camps; views about energy and society can no more be neatly packaged or defined than views about economics or politics. Nevertheless, this categorization provides framework from which some of the major differences about policy can discerned.
A version of this article appeared in print in the September 1979 issue of Resources magazine.
