Drought over large areas of the United States during 1977 provided many reminders of water's importance as a national resource and as an issue for public policy. Reservoirs dried up, crops withered, soils eroded, ski resorts closed, hydroelectric power production fell, forest fires raged out of control, and mandatory conservation was imposed in urban areas as far removed as California and Virginia.
California's response. California—where water imported over great distances or pumped from considerable depths has helped transform deserts into urban complexes and agricultural centers—has been hit the hardest. Indeed, the 1976-77 drought has been the worst in California's recorded history. In most of northern California precipitation has been only 30 percent of normal and runoff has been about 15 to 25 percent of normal.
The state's agriculture is particularly vulnerable to interruptions in the supply of low-cost water. In the spring of 1977 the agricultural situation looked bleak; state officials were projecting drought-related losses at 48,000 jobs and $3 billion in the agricultural industry alone. Estimates of the impact of the agritural losses on the overall state economy ranged from three to seven times those levels. Fortunately, despite the continued water shortage, these dire forecasts proved erroneous. California's 1977 fruit and vegetable harvest equaled or exceeded that of the previous year: a striking contrast to the early-spring fears that two-thirds of the crop would be lost.
Many factors contributed to the surprisingly strong performance of California's agriculture. Two, however, stand out because of their significance for long-term management of the state's water resources. The first, a very encouraging factor, was the rapid and widespread adoption of water conservation measures. Water which would have been wasted in prior years was recycled; investments in water-saving devices rose, and farmers tailored the quantity and timing of water applications more closely to crop needs. The second, a factor that may aggravate problems in the long run, was the increase groundwater use made possible by large new investments in wells and pumps.
The long-term implications of these developments are very different. The introduction of water-conservation techniques was long overdue, and many of these water-saving measures are likely to be retained and to pay off long after the drought has been broken. On the other hand, although the increased pumping capacity also will be useful after the drought has ended, it could lead to a less efficient long-term use of groundwater. Thus, investments in pumping, highly subsidized by government grants and loans and prompted primarily to prevent the loss of valuable fruit trees and vineyards, will hasten decline of the region's groundwater stocks.
Groundwater exploration. Groundwater is a common property resource that will be utilized inefficiently when left solely to individual decisions. For example, although rising energy prices and longer pumping distances increase the costs of water and encourage conservation, the water itself is free, and thus a farmer's costs reflect only part of the social costs of using this water. Having no property rights to water left in an aquifer, a farmer does not take into account the impact of his actions on neighboring or future water users. This undervaluation leads to an excessively rapid use of the water. When the rate of depletion exceeds the natural recharge to the aquifers, as is happening in many areas of California, the future is placed in jeopardy. The damages of a future drought may be amplified if the aquifers become so depleted that the region is unable to maintain even previous years' levels of ground-water use.
California is certainly not alone in the inefficient use of groundwater supplies. In many areas, notably west Texas and Arizona, declining groundwater tables already have halted or reversed the spread of irrigation. In parts of the High Plains the declining water supplies are prompting cries that the economic base of the region's economy, irrigated agriculture, may be literally pumped away by the turn of the century or soon thereafter. Furthermore, the costs of groundwater mining are not limited to the agricultural sector. For example, groundwater pumping around Las Vegas has caused land within the city to drop as much as a foot, producing large cracks in the city's streets and buildings. Although the costs of such subsidence are substantial, they do not enter into a farmer's irrigation decisions.
The drought has spotlighted a long-emerging problem regarding the management of western water resources. Historically, water use was encouraged and facilitated as part of a national effort to settle the West. Thus, the government helped create the present situation, in which most of the water is preempted for relatively low-value uses, new supplies are either unavailable or much more costly, and the institutions managing water allocation often dis-courage conservation and inhibit its transfer to new and often higher value uses.
Policy initiatives. The Carter administration undertook several initiatives in the water resources area during 1977. The most newsworthy was the effort to cancel or scale down a number of water projects in various stages of planning and construction. The protests by Congress and other supporters of the projects were loud and swift, and the eventual fate of many of the projects on the "hit list" was still unresolved by the end of the year. In any event, the administration's proposals regarding these projects will do nothing to solve or ease any short-term water problems, and even some supporters of the administration's position questioned the political wisdom of proposing such cuts during a drought. For water resource management, the principal significance of the administration's attack on these water projects is its indication of Carter's readiness to challenge established procedures and vested interests in water resource development and management. This previously demonstrated determination and interest in the subject added emphasis to President Carter's statement in his May 23, 1977 environmental message that "One of the pressing domestic issues facing this administration and this Congress is the establishment of a national water resources management policy." In this message the president also directed that a study be undertaken which would lead to a "comprehensive reform of water resources policy, with water conservation as its cornerstone."
There is nothing new about major water studies or appeals for policy reform, and it still remains to be seen whether the 1977 Water Resource Policy Study and the presidential appeals for improved water resource management will prove to be more substantive than previous studies and appeals. However, the sense of urgency created by the drought, the rising demands being placed on the diminishing water supplies in the West, and the strong administration challenge to powerful and traditional water interests offer some hope that 1977 eventually may be referred to as the start of a new phase in federal water resource development and management.
A version of this article appeared in print in the January 1978 issue of Resources magazine.
